The top-two race in the AFL is heating up, with the Sydney Swans' sudden slide opening up the competition. The Essendon Bombers, in a surprising twist, have also had an impact on the wildcard race, shaking up the competition. With five rounds left, The Run Home analyzes each club's remaining fixture and predicts the rest of the season, leading up to the AFL's first 10-team finals series.
Projected Finals Bracket
The top-two race is far from over, with several teams still in contention. Here's a look at the projected finals bracket:
- First Qualifying Final: Fremantle vs. Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
- First Elimination Final: Adelaide Crows vs. TBC at Adelaide Oval
- First Wildcard Final: Geelong vs. St Kilda at the MCG
- Second Wildcard Final: Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood at the MCG
- Second Elimination Final: Melbourne vs. TBC at the MCG
- Second Qualifying Final: Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn at the SCG
Projected Final Ladder
- Fremantle (19.65 projected wins)
- Sydney Swans (16.75)
- Hawthorn (16.15)
- Brisbane Lions (15.35)
- Adelaide Crows (15.15)
- Melbourne (14.7)
- Geelong (13.8)
- Western Bulldogs (13.5)
- Collingwood (12.45)
- St Kilda (11)
- GWS Giants (10.75)
- Carlton (10.35)
- North Melbourne (9.3)
- Gold Coast Suns (9)
- Port Adelaide (8)
- West Coast Eagles (5.4)
- Richmond (2.9)
- Essendon (2.7)
Key Talking Points
- Fremantle is on track to be minor premiers for the first time since 2015.
- Sydney's recent losses have created a race for second spot, with Hawthorn and Adelaide in the mix.
- Hawthorn has a real shot at finishing second, but must play away to Brisbane in a few weeks.
- Adelaide's win over Sydney boosts their chances of making the top four.
- Geelong's win over St Kilda keeps them in the hunt, but their path to the top four is narrow.
- Western Bulldogs are almost locked into the finals, with 11 wins and Richmond next week.
- GWS's loss to Essendon means St Kilda is projected to make the top ten.
- Carlton's path to the finals is tough, but Essendon has kept them in the hunt.
- North Melbourne's fixture is challenging, making it difficult for them to reach the wildcard.
- Gold Coast's chances of making the finals are slim, despite their strong percentage.
Deeper Analysis
The remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents, which somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage. The Dockers have the seventh-easiest fixture, while the Swans have the third-easiest.
Conclusion
The AFL season is far from over, with several teams still in contention for the top spots. The top-two race is heating up, and the wildcard race is also shaping up to be exciting. The final ladder and projected wins are subject to change, but the competition is sure to be thrilling until the end.
